Emergency Manager's Weekly Report

Jan 22, 20237 min read

Russian Invasion of Ukraine Situation Report #56

· As of January 15th, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights recorded 18,358 civilian casualties (7,031 killed and 11,327 injured) in the country.

· The Ukrainian military is reporting the following Russian losses:

o 120,760 Soldiers (Wounded or Killed)

o 3,145 Tanks

o 6,268 Armored vehicles

o 2,144 Artillery

o 287 Aircraft

o 277 Helicopters

o 1,892 Drones

o 17 Ships

· The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense is reporting the following:

o Recent Fighting:

ü The heaviest fighting has focused in three sectors. In the northeast, near Kremina, Ukraine has likely made small gains and successfully defended against a Russian counterattack.

ü Around the Donetsk Oblast, in Bakhmut sector, Russian and Wagner proxy forces have likely been reconstituting in the town of Soledar, after capturing it earlier in the week.

ü In the south, in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, both sides have massed significant forces, which have conducted artillery exchanges and skirmishes, but have avoided any large-scale offensive effort.

ü Overall, the conflict is in a state of deadlock. However, there is a realistic possibility of local Russian advances around Bakhmut.

o Wagner Group:

ü On December 27, 2022, the Russian Unified State Register showed that the proxy paramilitary Wagner Group had formally registered as a legal entity. The group declared their core activity as ‘management consultancy’; no mention was made of combat services.

ü It is not yet clear to what extent the ‘PMC Wagner Centre’ entity will be used to administer Wagner’s paramilitary activity. Private Military Companies remain illegal in Russia, despite protracted discussion about reforming the law.

ü Wagner almost certainly now commands up to 50,000 fighters in Ukraine and has become a key component of the Ukraine campaign. The registration likely aims to maximize Prigozhin’s commercial gain and to further legitimize the increasingly high-profile organization.

o T-14 Armata Tank Deployments:

ü Russia is likely considering deploying a small number of its new T-14 Armata main battle tanks in Ukraine.

ü In late December 2022, imagery showed T-14s on a training area in southern Russia. This site has been associated with pre-deployment activity for the Ukraine operation.

ü This followed pro-government Russia media outlets claiming T-14s were being prepared for deployment. However, it is unclear whether Russia has yet moved the type into Ukraine.

ü Any T-14 deployment is likely to be a high-risk decision for Russia. Eleven years in development, the program has been dogged with delays, reduction in planned fleet size, and reports of manufacturing problems.

ü An additional challenge for Russia is adjusting its logistics chain to handle T-14 because it is larger and heavier than other Russian tanks.

ü If Russia deploys T-14, it will likely primarily be for propaganda purposes. Production is probably only in the low tens, while commanders are unlikely to trust the vehicle in combat.

· On January 20th, the Ukraine Defense Contact Group met and reported the following contributions:

o United States of America:

ü $2.5 billion worth of gear, including Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, Stryker armored personnel carriers, mine-resistant ambush-protected vehicles, and Humvees.

ü 155 mm artillery shells rounds and precision-guided 155 mm artillery rounds.

ü Additional ammunition for the high mobility artillery rocket systems and ammunition support vehicles.

ü Millions of rounds of small arms ammunition.

ü Anti-radiation missiles

o France, Germany, Netherlands, and the United Kingdom: Air defense systems (including Patriot missile systems)

o Canada: National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System and associated munitions

o Sweden: CB-90 infantry fighting vehicles.

o Denmark: 19 howitzers

o Latvia: Stinger missiles, helicopters, and other equipment

o Estonia: 155 mm howitzers and munitions

· The International Atomic Energy Agency has established several permanent expert missions at nuclear power plants throughout Ukraine.

War and Atrocity Crimes Investigations Highlights:

· The European Parliament on January 19th, adopted a resolution that a special international tribunal be established to prosecute Russia’s political and military leadership and its allies.

· On January 15th, the Ukrainian Red Cross reported that Russian forces shelled their location in Kherson. This facility served as their offices and housed a rehabilitation center for children with disabilities. A total of seven people were injured.

· The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine is reporting the following:

o As of January 20th, 1,249 new crimes have been registered.

o The office is collecting evidence at the Russian attack on the Dnipro apartment building.

· A team from the International Commission on Missing Persons (ICMP) visited the Ukrainian Bureau of Legal Medical Expertise to assess their needs and discuss ICMP’s support to develop capacities in DNA testing and matching for the purpose of identifying missing persons.

Humanitarian Impact and Response and Recovery Highlights:

· The UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) is reporting the following:

o 8.0 million Refugees recorded across Europe.

o A total of 14 million people has been reached with humanitarian aid.

o There are currently 742 humanitarian organizations present in the country.

· On December 28, 2022, OCHA completed a humanitarian needs assessment. This assessment reports the following:

o The highest severity of needs is among people living in areas under the temporary military control of the Russian Federation and in areas directly affected by active hostilities.

o The humanitarian needs are multisectoral in nature, and gender and diversity factors (age, disability and minority status) play a key role in determining how people are impacted by the war.

o Among people who remain in towns and villages, the highest needs are in the east (especially among older people, people with disabilities and other segments of population) who are less likely to flee due to reasons which include reduced mobility, reluctance to abandon their homes and the lack of economic resources.

o Meanwhile, many people have returned to northern oblasts, where humanitarian needs remain high due to the extensive destruction of infrastructure. Of the 4.4 million returnees in need of humanitarian assistance, only 7% are estimated to be in parts of the country under the temporary military control of the Russian Federation, as the area is not conducive for returns.

o The most vulnerable internally displaced people include those currently living in collective centres. Many of the centres are not properly equipped to meet long-term accommodation needs, and urgently need heating and fuel, construction repairs, bathing facilities, and other multisectoral assistance.

o Displaced people living outside of collective centres, particularly those in rural areas across Ukraine, are likely to face problems in accessing services and assistance. Some 14% of internally displaced people in need of assistance are estimated to be in areas under the temporary military control of the Russian Federation, where the response is currently limited due to access challenges.

· Update on Russian attack on the Dnipro apartment building on January 14th:

o Search and rescue activities have been completed and 39 people were rescued.

o There are now 44 reported fatalities and 79 injures.

o Over 1,000 people have been made homeless because of the attack.

· European Union Update:

o Through the EU Civil Protection Mechanism, Malta is sending 20 generators and assorted medical supplies.

o The EU has again mobilized the rescEU medical reserve. Additional medications, equipment and supplies are being provided.

· Healthcare and Public Health Update:

o A hospital in Ochakiv was heavily damaged due to shelling on January 9th.

o The Zakarpattya oblast blood transfusion station is in dire need of blood of all types.

o In Severodonetsk in the Luhansk oblast, the mortality rate has increased fivefold due to lack of critical infrastructure.

o On January 15th, Russian forces fired at a hospital in Kherson.

o The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent are scaling up the region’s largest mental health initiative with support from the EU. This initiative will be targeting 300,000 that have been affected by the conflict.

· Food Security Update:

o Black Sea Grain Initiative:

ü There have been 671 outbound voyages with 18 million tons of commodities.

ü 42% of the wheat shipped has been delivered to lower-income countries.

o On January 19th, the U.S. Agency for International Development and Bayer announced they will provide high-quality vegetable seeds to Ukrainian farmers:

ü The first shipment is expected to supply up to 25,000 households and micro-farmers, with priority given to farmers in newly liberated areas.

Russian Dis-information Campaign Highlights:

· Russia is falsely claiming that the pension protests in France are anti-Ukrainian protests.

· The Russian government is portraying Wagner group mercenaries as selfless volunteers. The factcheck is available here.

· Russia’s various peace proposals over their invasion of Ukraine are simply attempts to conquer Ukraine. The analysis of these proposals is available here.

Cultural Heritage Protection Highlights:

· On January 17th, the Ukrainian Ministry of Culture and Information Policy reported that Russian shelling damaged the Kherson Academic Regional Puppet Theater.

Sources:

· USAID and Bayer Partner to Supply Seeds to Ukrainian Farmers in Advance of the Planting Season

· Ukraine Humanitarian Needs Overview 2023 (Issued December 2022)

· War in Ukraine: situation report from WHO Ukraine country office. Issue No. 41, 18 January 2023

· Ukraine Emergency: UNHCR Operational Response, Delivery Updates (18 January 2023)

· Ukraine: Civilian casualties as of 15 January 2023

· Ukraine Data Explorer

· OCHA Ukraine Twitter Page

· IFRC Europe Twitter Page

· European Parliament Twitter Page

· EU Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Twitter Page

· Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Twitter Page