Emergency Manager's Weekly Report

Feb 3, 20235 min read

Russian Invasion of Ukraine Situation Report #58

Military and Diplomatic Highlights:

· As of January 29th, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights recorded 18,657 civilian casualties (7,110 killed and 11,547 injured) in the country.

· The Ukrainian military is reporting the following Russian losses:

o 129,870 Soldiers (Wounded or Killed)

o 3,215 Tanks

o 6,388 Armored vehicles

o 2,215 Artillery

o 294 Aircraft

o 284 Helicopters

o 1,952 Drones

· The United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense is reporting the following:

o Wagner Group Convict Recruitment:

ü The scale of Russian paramilitary Wagner Group’s convict recruitment program has probably significantly reduced from its peak between summer and autumn 2022.

ü The Russian Federal Penal Service (FSIN) figures released on January 31st reported a national penal population of 433,000, suggesting a decrease of 6,000 inmates since November 2022.

ü In contrast, FSIN data had indicated a decrease of 23,000 from September to November 2022. Wagner recruitment was likely a major contributing factor to this drop.

ü Separately, anecdotal evidence from Ukrainian combatants over the last ten days suggests a reduced Russian reliance on human wave style assaults by Wagner convict fighters in key sectors.

ü Significant tensions between Wagner and the Russian Ministry of Defense are playing out in public; competition between factions in the Russian elite is likely to be partially responsible for the reduced supply of convicts.

o Shelling near Dnipro River:

ü In recent days, some of the most intense shelling in the conflict has likely taken place along the Dnipro River in southern Ukraine. This has included continued Russian shelling of Kherson city with artillery firing from the east of the river.

ü On January 29th, local authorities reported another three civilians killed in Kherson, while two foreign-owned ships moored on the river were damaged, causing an oil spill.

ü Kherson remains the most consistently shelled large Ukrainian city outside of the Donbas. Russia’s precise rationale for expending its strained ammunition stocks here is unclear.

ü However, commanders are likely partially aiming to degrade civilian morale and to deter any Ukrainian counterattacks across the Dnipro River.

· The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is reporting the following:

o The main reservoir forming part of the Dnipro River, which provides cooling water for the Zaporizhzhya plant, has seen a recent water level reduction.

o The decreased water level does not pose an immediate threat to nuclear safety and security, but it may become a source of concern if it is allowed to continue.

War and Atrocity Crimes Investigations Highlights:

· The Conflict Observatory using high-resolution imagery collected on January 17th, found almost 19% of the buildings in Bakhmut was severely damaged or destroyed. This analysis is available here.

· The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine reported that as of February 3rd, there has been 1,348 new crimes registered.

· The International Criminal Court in partnership with the Netherlands convened a meeting with 20 States to discuss joint action for collection of forensic evidence in the situation in Ukraine and provision of support to Ukrainian authorities.

Humanitarian Impact and Response and Recovery Highlights:

· On February 1st, a Russian missile attack destroyed an apartment building in the center of Kramatorsk:

o There are a total of three fatalities and 18 injuries.

· As of February 3rd, the current humanitarian situation included the following:

o 8 million Refugees recorded across Europe.

o 5.9 million Internally Displaced Persons

o There are 17.6 million people in need of humanitarian assistance and 13.9 million people have been reached.

· As of February 3rd, the UN reported that humanitarian supplies (food, water, medicines, solar lamps, bedding, and hygiene items) were delivered to more than 15,000 people who remain in Toretsk.

· The Ukrainian Red Cross is reporting the following:

o In Zaporizhzhia, the Ukrainian Red Cross handed over a diesel generator to the State Emergency Service.

o Additional psychosocial support centers were opened in Kamianets-Podilskyi and Ternopil.

· The EU has mobilized 3,000 Relief Housing Units and 4,500 beds from the rescEU shelter reserve to provide emergency shelter for displaced people.

· As of January 31st, World Central Kitchen has served 200 million meals throughout the country.

· Healthcare and Public Health Update:

o The World Health Organization (WHO) has verified 764 attacks on health care. These attacks caused 101 deaths and 131.

o The Ministry of Health has announced that since the start of the conflict:

ü 1,200 medical facilities have been targeted, of which more than 170 have been destroyed.

ü 143 health-care facilities suffered minor damage.

ü More than 250 healthcare facilities have been partially restored. Most of the rebuilt medical facilities are in the Kyiv, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr and Dnipropetrovsk regions.

o In parts of the Luhansk oblast that are beyond the control of the Ukrainian Government, locally manufactured medicines are banned, and only Russian-manufactured medicines will are available for purchase.

o injuries.

· Black Seas Grain Initiative Update:

o 701 Outbound Voyages with 20 million tons of Commodities

o 2.4 million Wheat shipped to Lower Income countries.

· The UN has created a Multi-agency Donor Coordination Platform to support Ukraine’s repair, recovery and reconstruction process:

o This platform will allow for close coordination among international donors and international financial organizations, and ensure that support is provided in a coherent, transparent, and accountable manner.

· The EU has established a systemto send international and private donations to Ukraine. The most needed items:

o Energy supplies

o Therapeutics

o Medical supplies

o Shelter equipment

o CBRNE countermeasures

Russian Dis-information Campaign Highlights:

· The Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev claimed that nuclear powers have never lost major conventional wars. That assertion is false, the factcheck is available here.

· Russia continues to push false narratives on biolabs and the testing of bioweapons in Ukraine.

Cultural Heritage Protection Highlights:

· As of February 1st, the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) has verified damage to 238 sites. This includes:

o 105 Religious sites

o 18 Museums

o 85 Buildings of historical and/or artistic interest

o 19 Monuments

o 11 Libraries

· The Ministry of Culture and Information Policy of Ukraine is currently working on the digitization of various museum collections.

Sources:

· Ukraine - Complex Emergency Fact Sheet #8, Fiscal Year (FY) 2023

· War in Ukraine: situation report from WHO Ukraine country office. Issue No. 43, 1 February 2023