Russian Invasion of Ukraine Situation Report #65

Military and Diplomatic Highlights: · The Ukrainian military is reporting the following Russian losses: o 169.890 Soldiers (Wounded or Killed) o 3,580 Tanks o 6,932 Armored vehicles o 2,623 Artillery o 305 Aircraft o 291 Helicopters o 2,214 Drones · The United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense is reporting the following: o Russian assault on Bakhmut: ü Russia’s assault on the Donbas town of Bakhmut has largely stalled. This is likely primarily a result of extreme attrition of the Russian force. Ukraine has also suffered heavy casualties during its defense. ü The Russian situation has also likely been made worse by tensions between the Russian Ministry of Defense and Wagner Group, both of whom contribute troops in the sector. ü Russia has likely shifted its operational focus towards Avdiivka, south of Bakhmut, and to the Kremina-Svatove sector in the north, areas where Russia likely only aspires to stabilize its front line. ü This suggests an overall return to a more defensive operational design after inconclusive results from its attempts to conduct a general offensive since January 2023. o Fighting in the Svatove-Kremina sector: ü Since the start of March 2023, heavy fighting has continued in parts of the Svatove-Kremina sector of the front line in northern Luhansk Oblast. ü Russia has partially regained control over the immediate approaches to Kremina town, which was under immediate Ukrainian threat earlier in the year. ü In places, Russia has made gains of up to several kilometers. Russian commanders are likely trying to expand a security zone west from the defense lines they have prepared along higher ground and integrate the natural obstacle of the Oskil River. ü They are likely to seek to recapture Kupiansk, a logistics node. ü Operationally, Russia’s intent in the north-east likely remains defensive. Commanders probably fear this is one of the sectors where Ukraine could attempt major offensive operations. o Wagner Group’s use of Russian Convicts: ü In the coming weeks, thousands of Russian convicts who have fought for Wagner Group are likely to be pardoned and released. Wagner prisoner recruitment peaked in autumn 2022, with inmates being offered commutation of their sentences after six months. ü Although approximately half of the prisoners recruited have likely been killed or wounded, evidence from Russia suggests the group is following through on its promise to free survivors. ü The certificates issued to freed Wagner veterans claim to have been endorsed by the decree of President Putin. ü With Wagner now likely banned from recruiting more prisoners, this exodus will worsen its personnel problems. ü In addition, the sudden influx of often violent offenders with recent and often traumatic combat experience will likely present a significant challenge for Russia’s war-time society. · International Assistance: o The first four MiG 29s from Slovakia have been delivered to Ukraine. o On March 20th, the United States announced the next round of security assistance worth $350 million, it includes: ü Ammunition for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System ü High-speed anti-radiation missiles ü AT4 anti-armor weapon systems ü Grenade launchers ü Small arms and associated ammunition ü Riverine patrol boats o On March 21st, the EU announced it is dispersing another 1.5 billion Euros to Ukraine. o The U.S. Department of Defense announced that they will be sending 31 M1A1 Abrams tanks: ü Using this variant will enable the United States to deliver these tanks by the fall of this year. ü The M1A1 also includes advanced armor and weapons systems. ü Instead of buying new M1A1 tanks there are excess hulls already in U.S. inventory that will be refurbished and refitted for use by the Ukrainian military. War and Atrocity Crimes Investigations Highlights: · As of March 19th, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights recorded 22,209 civilian casualties (8,317 killed and 13,892 injured). · The Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine reported that as of March 24th, a total of 1,602 crimes have been registered. · On March 23rd, Ukraine signed an agreement with the International Criminal Court to establish an office in the country. Humanitarian Impact and Response and Recovery Highlights: · Over the past few weeks, hostilities have significantly escalated in and around Avdiivka, a town on the front line in Donetska oblast which is under government control: o Due to the increased insecurity, local authorities are calling on the remaining 2,000 civilians to evacuate the area. o On March 20th, Ukrainian authorities reported that the town was being hit by 250-300 artillery shells and 20 aerial bombardments each day, leaving civilians dead and injured, damaging homes, hospitals, and schools, and disrupting essential services. o Access to Avdiivka for humanitarian workers and even volunteers has become extremely challenging due to the extremely insecure situation. o Despite increasing challenges, humanitarians are delivering vital aid to ensure civilians in Avdiivka can meet their basic needs. · The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) has been advocating that in the countries hosting refugees, they should be given expanded access to education, employment, housing, social welfare, medical and other services. · UNHCR continues to provide refugees across the region with language training and job counselling, whilst promoting social cohesion interventions to strengthen community support and expand refugee access to social and economic opportunities. · Healthcare and Public Health Update: o As of March 23rd, the World Health Organization reported 859 attacks on healthcare which has resulted in 101 deaths and 136 injuries. o Between March 10-16, the incidence of Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Ukraine increased by more than 21%: ü In total, more than 18,600 cases were registered in the previous week, and 4,479 patients were hospitalized. ü The Ministry of Health expects that the number of detected cases should decline closer to April and increase again in the fall. o On March 22nd, the first vehicle of the Ukrainian Red Cross’ Mobile Medical Brigades started working in Odesa: ü Its mission is to operate in remote communities providing primary and emergency medical care. o As of March 23rd, the EU through the Civil Protection Mechanism has evacuated 2,000 patients: ü These patients have been transferred for treatment to hospitals in 20 other European countries. ü These evacuations have been supported by the EU Medevac Hub in Rzeszów where patients receive 24/7 nursing care. This hub serves as a transfer center for patients who have been transported from Ukraine to Poland by land, and who from the hub will be airlifted to hospitals across Europe. · Black Sea Grain Initiative Update (March 23): o 843 Outbound Voyages carrying 26 million tons of commodities. o 42.2% of the wheat shipments are going to lower-income countries. Russian Dis-information Campaign Highlights: · President Putin has falsely claimed that Russia’s invasion is guided by the UN Charter. Here is the factcheck. · Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is trying to blame the United States for Russia's 'war of choice' in Ukraine. Here is the factcheck. · Russia’s diplomatic networks are repeating old lies about the illegal annexation of Crimea. Cultural Heritage Protection Highlights: · The UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization as of March 22nd, has verified damage to 248 cultural heritage sites. This includes: o 107 Religious’ sites o 21 Museums o 89 Buildings of historical and/or artistic interest o 19 Monuments o 12 Libraries Sources: · Ukraine Situation Flash Update #43 (24 March 2023) · Ukraine: Deterioration of the humanitarian situation in Donetska oblast - Flash Update #2: Avdiivka (24 Mar 2023) · War in Ukraine: Situation report from WHO Ukraine country office. Issue No. 48, 22 March 2023 · Ukraine: Civilian casualties as of 24:00, 19 March 2023 · Ukraine Data Explorer · Damaged cultural sites in Ukraine verified by UNESCO · OCHA Ukraine Twitter Page · Ukrainian Ministry of Defense Twitter Page · Prosecutor General's Office of Ukraine Twitter Page · Ukrainian Red Cross Twitter Page · United Kingdom Ministry of Defense Twitter Page · U.S. Department of Defense Twitter Page · PolyGraph Info Twitter Page · EU East Stratcom Task Force for Disinformation Review Twitter Page · EU Commission President’s Twitter Page Resources UN Refugee Agency, Ukrainian Refugee Operational Data Portal http://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine Centre for Humanitarian Data, Ukraine Data Explorer https://data.humdata.org/visualization/ukraine-humanitarian-operations/ Humanitarian Logistics Association, Ukraine Crisis Information Website https://www.humanitarianlogistics.org/donate ACAPS Ukraine Analysis Hub https://ukraine-analysis-hub.acaps.org/ UKRAINE- HEALTH CLUSTER ACTIVITIES Dashboard https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/ukraine/ukraine-health-cluster-activities U.S. Department of State, Disinformation Website https://www.state.gov/disarming-disinformation/ U.S. Department of Defense, Support for Ukraine https://www.defense.gov/Spotlights/Support-for-Ukraine/ Alliance For Securing Democracy War in Ukraine Dis-Information Dashboard https://securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/war-in-ukraine/ National Democratic Institute Disinformation Coordination Hub https://t.co/OctUrivBQC International Fact-Checking Network, #Ukraine Facts https://ukrainefacts.org/ Monetary Donations