Russian Invasion of Ukraine Situation Report #66

Military and Diplomatic Highlights: · The Ukrainian military reported the following Russian losses: o 173,990 Soldiers (Wounded or Killed) o 3,616 Tanks o 6,981 Armored vehicles o 2,683 Artillery o 306 Aircraft o 291 Helicopters o 2,248 Drones · Russia launched two drone attacks on March 27th and the 31st: o March 27: 15 drones were launched and 14 were shot down. o March 31: 10 drones were launched and nine were shot down. · The United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defense is reporting the following: o Counter-radar barrier attacks: ü On March 23rd, the Ukrainian Special Operation Forces released footage of a Russian ZOOPARK-1M counter-battery radar being destroyed in the Donetsk area. ü Efforts by both sides to neutralize their opponent’s counter-battery radars have been a constant element of the conflict. These systems are relatively few but are a significant force multiplier. They allow commanders to rapidly locate and strike enemy artillery. ü However, because they have an active electromagnetic signature, they are vulnerable to being detected and destroyed. Russia has lost at least six ZOOPARK-1M and likely only has a very limited number left in Ukraine. ü Regenerating counter-battery radar fleets is likely a key priority for both sides, but Russia will likely struggle because the systems rely on supplies of high-tech electronics which have been disrupted by sanctions. o Military recruitment: ü Russian media reporting suggests that the authorities are preparing to start a major military recruitment campaign with the aim of signing up an additional 400,000 troops. ü Russia is presenting the campaign as a drive for volunteer, professional personnel, rather than a new, mandatory mobilization. ü There is a realistic possibility that in practice this distinction will be blurred, and that regional authorities will try to meet their allocated recruitment targets by coercing men to join up. ü Russian authorities have likely selected a supposedly ‘volunteer model’ to meet their personnel shortfall to minimize domestic dissent. It is highly unlikely that the campaign will attract 400,000 genuine volunteers. ü However, rebuilding Russia’s combat power in Ukraine will require more than just personnel; Russia needs more munitions and military equipment supplies than it currently has available. o Bakhmut Offensive: ü Fighting continues in the Donbas town of Bakhmut, though Russian assaults are still at a reduced level compared to recent weeks. ü One of the key achievements of recent Ukrainian operations has likely been to push Russian Wagner Group fighters back from the 0506 route. ü This minor country road has become a critical supply line for Ukrainian defenders. Wagner had previously been within a few hundred meters of the route. ü On March 26th, Russian media claimed Wagner had taken full control of the Azom factory complex to the north of Bakhmut town center. ü However, the area likely remains contested, as it has been for the past fortnight. With Wagner having now confirmed the release of at least 5000 prisoner fighters, personnel shortages are likely hampering Russian offensive efforts in the sector. · The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director completed a visit to the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant and confirmed the assessment of the seriousness of safety and security at the plant. War and Atrocity Crimes Investigations Highlights: · As of March 26th, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights recorded 22,424 civilian casualties (8,401 killed and 14,023 injured) in the country. · The Ukrainian military on March 27th accused the Russian Federation of a scorched earth policy in its advance into Ukraine. An example is the complete destruction of every structure in the village of Blahodatne in the Mykolaiv region. · March 31st marked the one-year anniversary of the war crimes committed by Russian forces in Bucha: o More than 9,000 war crimes were committed during the 33-day occupation. o An estimated 1,400+ civilians were killed. Many were subjected to torture. o The Ukrainian government has so far charged almost 100 Russian servicemen. o Two Russian soldiers were sentenced to 12 years for torturing civilians and looting. o On the anniversary of Bucha, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reiterated that targeting civilians must stop! Humanitarian Impact and Response and Recovery Highlights: · The UN has organized several convoys of relief supplies over the past week: o On March 29th, five truckloads of supplies were delivered to 3,000 people in the Huliaipole community in the Zaporizhzhia region. These supplies included shelter materials, medicine, solar lamps, and hygiene items. o OCHA on March 31st delivered food, shelter materials, mattresses, and hygiene items to support 12,000 people in Vovchansk and surrounding communities in the Kharkiv region. · Health and Public Health Update: o On March 28th, the World Health Organization (WHO) delivered medical supplies and medicines to five hospitals in the Kherson and Mykolaiv regions. These supplies included interagency health kits, non-communicable disease kits and trauma kits. o In cooperation with the EU, WHO delivered 33 ambulances to Ukraine on March 27th. · On March 27th, the UN Migration Agency with support from the U.S. Agency for International Development delivered 43 boilers to 29 collective centers in the Vinnytsia region. · Ukrainian Red Cross Update: o On March 31st, they opened an aid distribution point in a modular town housing displaced people in Buchi. o A total of 500 sets of portable gas stoves and gas cylinders were distributed on April 1st to the villages of Bilozerschyna in the Kherson Oblast. · The EU as of March 29th has provided the following support to the energy infrastructure: o 2,554 power generators were offered by 26 countries. o A total of 5,266,000 assorted energy repair items have been provided. o 2,081 transformers have been delivered. · Black Sea Grain Initiative Update (March 30): o There have been 862 outbound voyages with 26 million tons of commodities. o A total of 3.1 million tons of wheat have been shipped to lower income countries. Russian Dis-information Campaign Highlights: · On March 23rd, the former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev claimed that Russia has no problems supplying its army with weapons. Here is the factcheck. · The EU East Stratcom Task Force for Disinformation Review provided an overview of Russian disinformation over the past week. · The Russian Federation has continued to deny accusations of war crimes committed in Bucha. A summary of their denials is available here. Cultural Heritage Protection Highlights: · A year ago, the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) recorded damage to 50 cultural sites, as of March 22nd it has risen to 248 sites. UNESCO is calling for increased attention for the protection of Ukrainian cultural heritage. Resources Ukraine: USG Humanitarian Response to the Complex Emergency (03/27/23) (New) https://reliefweb.int/map/ukraine/ukraine-usg-humanitarian-response-complex-emergency-032723 Maps of the active collective sites and inactive collective sites ready to host IDPs in emergency (Ukraine, January 2023) (New) https://reliefweb.int/map/ukraine/maps-active-collective-sites-and-inactive-collective-sites-ready-host-idps-emergency-ukraine-january-2023enuk Explained: Meet the Challenger 2 tank heading to Ukraine (New) https://medium.com/voices-of-the-armed-forces/explained-meet-the-challenger-2-tank-heading-to-ukraine-d23ec317bdd UN Refugee Agency, Ukrainian Refugee Operational Data Portal http://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine Centre for Humanitarian Data, Ukraine Data Explorer https://data.humdata.org/visualization/ukraine-humanitarian-operations/ Humanitarian Logistics Association, Ukraine Crisis Information Website https://www.humanitarianlogistics.org/donate ACAPS Ukraine Analysis Hub https://ukraine-analysis-hub.acaps.org/ UKRAINE- HEALTH CLUSTER ACTIVITIES Dashboard https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/ukraine/ukraine-health-cluster-activities U.S. Department of State, Disinformation Website https://www.state.gov/disarming-disinformation/ U.S. Department of Defense, Support for Ukraine https://www.defense.gov/Spotlights/Support-for-Ukraine/ Alliance For Securing Democracy War in Ukraine Dis-Information Dashboard https://securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/war-in-ukraine/ National Democratic Institute Disinformation Coordination Hub https://t.co/OctUrivBQC International Fact-Checking Network, #Ukraine Facts https://ukrainefacts.org/ Monetary Donations